FIFA promised the 2026 World Cup would be carbon-neutral, but the organization has not published emissions data to verify the claim. Researchers built a computer model to assess whether the tournament, which will span the United States, Mexico, and Canada, actually achieves that goal.

The bid committee committed to carbon neutrality during the bidding process, a pledge that attracted environmental scrutiny. Green groups raised concerns that the scale of the event, including stadium construction, international travel, and temporary infrastructure, would generate massive emissions that could not be offset through realistic mitigation measures.

Without official data from FIFA, scientists modeled likely emissions across the tournament's footprint. They examined transportation of teams, fans, and staff; energy consumption in stadiums and host cities; waste management; and supply chain impacts. The model incorporated realistic assumptions about renewable energy availability in the three host nations and typical offset programs FIFA might pursue.

The findings suggest substantial gaps between FIFA's carbon-neutral pledge and actual emissions levels. The research highlights a broader pattern in mega-event planning: host nations and organizing bodies announce environmental commitments that lack rigorous monitoring or transparent reporting. Without published emissions inventories, public accountability disappears.

The 2026 World Cup involves 16 stadiums across three countries with different infrastructure and energy grids. The disparity between promise and performance raises questions about how FIFA measures carbon neutrality and what baseline it uses for calculations.

This analysis matters for future tournaments. As the sports world increasingly faces climate pressure, FIFA and other event organizers face demands to demonstrate genuine environmental progress rather than marketing claims. The absence of transparent emissions reporting enables organizers to claim success without external verification. Parents, students, and educators watching how global institutions handle climate commitments are observing whether accountability matches ambition. The gap between FIFA's stated goals and measurable outcomes suggests environmental pledges require independent oversight from the start.